Your acca is three legs down and one to go. £10 on at 20/1. The last team is playing now and you can back the other side at 6/4. Do you let it ride for £200, or lock something in? The hedge calculator shows exactly what each choice is worth.
Hedge for equal profit and you put £84 on the other side. Whatever happens in the last game, you’re £116 up. Or hedge just enough to get your money back: £6.67 on the other side, and you either win £193.33 or break even. That’s the whole decision in two numbers.
Using the hedge calculator
Put in your original stake and odds (for an acca, the odds of the whole thing), then the price you can get on the other outcome right now. Pick what you want:
- Same profit whatever happens. A full hedge. You give up the big win for a certain smaller one.
- Just get my stake back. The cheap version. You keep almost all the upside and stop the bet from costing you anything.
The last line shows what the original bet pays with no hedge, so you can see what you’re giving up.
Is hedging worth it?
In pure maths terms, a hedge is just another bet, and it carries the bookie’s margin like any other. If the original bet was good value, hedging usually costs you a little on average.
But you’re not an average. £200 might matter to you a lot more than the few quid the hedge costs in expected value. Locking in a sure £116 can be a perfectly sensible choice. What doesn’t make sense is hedging out of nerves on every bet you place, because then you’re paying the margin twice, every time.
Hedging vs cash out
Most bookies offer cash out, which is a hedge they do for you. It’s convenient, and it’s almost always priced below what you could get by hedging yourself at a good price. Put the cash out offer next to the calculator’s equal-profit number. If the hedge pays noticeably more, the bookie is charging you for the convenience.
The formulas
Equal profit: hedge stake = original stake × original odds ÷ hedge odds Stake back: hedge stake = original stake ÷ (hedge odds − 1)
Decimal odds. With three outcomes, like a football match with a draw, you’d need to cover two of them, and the dutching calculator handles that split.
Hedging can lock in a profit. It can’t undo a stake you couldn’t afford. BeGambleAware.org is free and confidential if it stops being fun.