- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
A poker EV calculator turns a hunch into a number. There’s $100 in the pot, villain bets $50 and you have a flush draw with about 30% equity. Calling wins $150 three times in ten and loses $50 seven times: 0.3 × 150 − 0.7 × 50 = +$10. A small profit, every time you make that call. The free CasinoCalcs calculator above does the sum for a call or a bluff, with the break-even point.
The poker EV formula
For a call you only need three numbers: the pot, the bet and your equity. EV = equity × (pot + bet) − (1 − equity) × bet. If that’s above zero the call makes money over time, whether this one wins or not. The break-even equity is your call divided by the pot after you call. Facing $50 into $100 that’s 50 ÷ 200 = 25%, so the 30% draw clears it.
| Bet size | Equity needed to call | Bluff must work |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter pot | 16.7% | 20% |
| Third pot | 20% | 25% |
| Half pot | 25% | 33.3% |
| Two-thirds pot | 28.6% | 40% |
| Pot | 33.3% | 50% |
| Twice the pot | 40% | 66.7% |
EV of a bluff
A bet makes money two ways: they fold, or they call and you win anyway. Bet $75 into $100 with a draw and a pure bluff needs folds 43% of the time (75 ÷ 175). Give the same bet 20% equity when called and the needed folds drop to 20%, because the calls aren’t a disaster any more. At 30% equity the bet breaks even even when called. That’s the case for semi-bluffing your draws rather than your air, and the calculator shows both figures side by side.
Fold equity is the number you have to guess. Nobody folds exactly 40% of the time, but you can usually tell 10% from 60%, and that’s precise enough. Put in a low and a high guess and see if the answer changes. Often it doesn’t, which means the decision is clearer than it felt at the table.
What EV leaves out
This is the single-street version: money goes in, cards come out, someone wins. Real hands carry on. A draw that is slightly −EV on the flop can be a good call if you’ll get paid when you hit, which is what the implied odds calculator adds. For the equity itself, use the poker odds calculator, and for how often to defend against a bet, the MDF calculator. The pot odds calculator is the quick version when you only need the price.
+EV decisions still lose a lot of hands. BeGambleAware.org offers support if poker stops being fun.