The 16 lottery teams
| # | Team (worst record first) | Draw odds % | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Top 2 | Drops | Worst pick |
|---|
Run the lottery
Two draws decide picks 1 and 2. The first draw uses the odds in the table; the second uses the same odds with the first winner taken out. A winner that would move up more than the limit moves up exactly that far instead, and the pick goes to the worst remaining team. Everyone else drafts in reverse order of the standings. The chances in the table are exact, worked out from all 240 possible draw results. The rule that a team can only win the lottery twice in five years is not modelled.
- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
The NHL draft lottery simulator above starts from the worst record in the league, with an 18.5% chance of winning the first draw. Its real chance of picking first is higher, 25.5%, because teams 12th to 16th from the bottom can’t move up far enough to take the first pick. The free CasinoCalcs simulator works out every team’s exact chance of picking first, second, or falling, from all 240 ways the two draws can go. Then you can draw the balls yourself.
NHL draft lottery odds for every spot
With the standard odds and the 10-place limit, these are the exact chances:
| Lottery seed | Draw odds | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Top 2 | Worst pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (worst record) | 18.5% | 25.5% | 18.8% | 44.3% | 3 |
| 2 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 27.5% | 4 |
| 3 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 22.7% | 5 |
| 4 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 6 |
| 8 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 10 |
| 11 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 13 |
| 12 | 2.5% | 0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 14 |
| 13 | 2.0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15 |
Look at seed 12. It can’t win the first pick, but if it wins the first draw it jumps exactly 10 places to second. That’s why its pick 2 chance (5.3%) is bigger than its draw odds.
How the two draws work
The first draw uses the odds in the table. The second draw is held with the first winner taken out, so everyone else’s odds go up a bit. A winner that’s more than 10 places from the pick it won moves up exactly 10 places instead, and the pick goes to the worst remaining team. After the two draws, the rest of the non-playoff teams pick in reverse order of the standings.
Everything is editable. Type team names, change the odds if the league changes them, or set the limit to ‘no limit’ to see what the old style of lottery would do. The table recalculates exactly every time, with no simulation noise.
Lottery maths, the same as any other draw
Under the hood this is the same probability as a raffle: weighted balls, drawn without replacement. If you like seeing how weighted draws behave, the raffle odds calculator works the same way for tickets, and the horse race name picker is a fun way to set your own fantasy draft order.