- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
A blackjack bust calculator for the hand everyone hates: hard 16 against a ten. Hit and you bust 61.5% of the time. Stand and the dealer, showing a ten, only busts about 23% of the time. Both options are bad, and hitting is the less bad one. The free CasinoCalcs calculator gives you the bust chance for any total and any dealer upcard, plus what basic strategy says.
Your blackjack bust probability
On a hard total you bust when the next card is bigger than 21 minus your total. With 16, that’s any 6 or higher: 6, 7, 8, 9 and the four ten-value ranks, so 8 of the 13 ranks. 8 ÷ 13 = 61.5%.
| Your hard total | Bust if you hit |
|---|---|
| 12 | 30.8% |
| 13 | 38.5% |
| 14 | 46.2% |
| 15 | 53.8% |
| 16 | 61.5% |
| 17 | 69.2% |
| 18 | 76.9% |
| 19 | 84.6% |
| 20 | 92.3% |
Each step up adds one more busting rank, 7.7 points. 11 or less can’t bust, and nor can a soft hand: an ace that would take you over just counts as 1.
Dealer bust chart by upcard
| Dealer shows | Bust (stands on soft 17) | Bust (hits soft 17) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 35.7% |
| 3 | 37.4% | 37.7% |
| 4 | 39.4% | 39.7% |
| 5 | 41.6% | 41.8% |
| 6 | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| 9 | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 10 | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| A | 16.7% | 20.1% |
These are after the dealer has checked for blackjack, so a 10 or ace showing means no natural underneath. The 6 is the dealer’s worst card. It’s also why basic strategy stands on 12 against 4 to 6 and on 13 to 16 against 2 to 6: let the dealer take the risk.
Why you still hit 16 against a 10
Because standing on 16 only wins when the dealer busts, about 23% of the time against a ten. Hitting busts often, but when it doesn’t you sometimes make 17 to 21 and win or push. Over many hands, hitting loses a little less. If the table offers surrender, 16 against a 10 is the classic hand to give up half.
The full answer for every hand is on the blackjack strategy chart, and the blackjack calculator gives the exact odds of hitting, standing, doubling or splitting for your cards.
For the full picture of where the dealer ends up from every upcard, see the blackjack probability chart.
Knowing the odds of busting doesn’t change the house edge. Play to a budget. BeGambleAware.org is free if you need it.