The deal
How the dealer finishes
Dealer outcome chart by upcard
Exact for an infinite deck, which six and eight-deck shoes match to within about a tenth of a percent. The dealer draws to 17 and stands, or hits soft 17 under H17. With a peek, the 10 and ace rows are for hands where the dealer doesn't have blackjack.
- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
This blackjack probability chart answers the question behind every decision at the table: where does the dealer end up? With a 6 showing, the dealer busts 42.3% of the time. With a 10 showing, only 23%. Every row of basic strategy comes from numbers like these, and the free CasinoCalcs calculator above gives you the full set for any upcard and rule, plus your real chance of winning when you stand.
Blackjack probability chart: where the dealer finishes
Dealer stands on soft 17, and for the 10 and ace the dealer has already checked and doesn’t have blackjack. These are the hands you actually play.
| Dealer shows | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 35.4% |
| 3 | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 37.4% |
| 4 | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 39.4% |
| 5 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 41.6% |
| 6 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 42.3% |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.5% |
| 9 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.8% |
| 10 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 37.1% | 3.7% | 23.0% |
| A | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 7.8% | 16.7% |
The pattern jumps out once you look for it. A 7, 8, 9 or 10 showing usually means the hole card is a ten, so the dealer lands on 17, 18, 19 or 20 more than a third of the time. That’s why 16 against a 7 is a hit and 16 against a 6 is a stand: against the 6 the dealer has to draw, and 42% of the time that draw goes over 21.
Blackjack odds at a glance
Played with basic strategy on a six-deck game, a hand wins about 42.4% of the time, loses 49.1% and pushes 8.5%. That looks worse than it is, because blackjacks pay 3 to 2 and doubles win twice the stake, which brings the house edge down to around half a per cent. You’re dealt a blackjack about once every 21 hands (4.75%), and the dealer busts about 28% of the time overall.
What standing is really worth
Standing on 18 feels safe. Against a 6 it wins 58.9% of the time. Against a 10 it wins only 35%, pushes 12.1% and loses the rest, which is why 18 against a 10 is a losing hand even though you’d never hit it. Pick a total in the calculator and you’ll see the win, push and lose split for any upcard.
| You stand on | v 2 | v 6 | v 7 | v 10 | v A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 or less | 35.4% | 42.3% | 26.2% | 23.0% | 16.7% |
| 17 | 35.4% | 42.3% | 26.2% | 23.0% | 16.7% |
| 18 | 49.3% | 58.9% | 63.1% | 35.0% | 35.5% |
| 19 | 62.8% | 69.5% | 76.9% | 47.1% | 54.4% |
| 20 | 75.8% | 80.1% | 84.7% | 59.2% | 73.3% |
Two things worth noticing. Standing on 17 wins no more often than standing on 12, because 17 only beats a dealer who busts; the extra is the pushes. And 18 against a 7 wins 63.1%, better than against a 6, since a dealer with 7 showing makes exactly 17 so often.
The rules that move the numbers
When the dealer hits soft 17, some of those 17s become busts but more become 18 to 21. The bust chance with an ace showing goes from 16.7% to 20.1%, yet the rule still costs you about 0.2% overall. With no hole card, as in many European casinos, the dealer can turn over blackjack after you’ve doubled or split; switch the hole card setting to see the blackjack column. For the bust odds of your own hand, use the blackjack bust calculator, and for the value of each play the blackjack EV chart.
The chart is exact for an infinite deck. A six or eight-deck shoe moves the figures by about a tenth of a percent, which is less than the rounding.
A good chart lowers the house edge. It never removes it. BeGambleAware.org has free advice if the game stops being fun.