Your hand
Expected value of each play
EV chart: best play and its value per unit bet
S stand H hit D double P split R surrender. Tap a cell to see every option for that hand.
Exact for an infinite deck (the usual way strategy charts are worked out; six or eight decks are within a few thousandths). EV is in units of your original bet: −0.540 means you lose 54p per £1 on average. After a split each hand is played without a further split. With no hole card, a dealer blackjack takes doubles and splits too.
- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
A blackjack EV chart shows what basic strategy is built on: the expected value of every play, for every hand, against every upcard. Hard 11 against a 6 is worth +0.67 units if you double. Hard 16 against a 10 is worth −0.54 whatever you do. The free CasinoCalcs calculator above works out stand, hit, double, split and surrender for your rules, and tapping any cell shows the full comparison.
Blackjack EV chart: reading the numbers
EV is in units of your original bet. +0.180 means you win 18p per £1 on average every time that hand comes up; −0.540 means you lose 54p. The chart colours each cell by the best play and prints its value, so a pale cell with a negative number is a hand you’re losing whatever you do, and the job is only to lose less.
| Hand v upcard | Stand | Hit | Double | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 v 10 | −0.540 | −0.540 | −1.080 | |
| 12 v 4 | −0.211 | −0.214 | −0.427 | |
| 11 v 10 | −0.540 | +0.119 | +0.180 | |
| 10 v 10 | −0.540 | +0.025 | −0.009 | |
| A,7 v 9 | −0.183 | −0.101 | −0.290 | |
| 8,8 v 10 | −0.540 | −0.540 | −0.489 | |
| 9,9 v 7 | +0.400 | −0.591 | +0.370 | |
| A,A v 6 | −0.154 | +0.186 | +0.667 |
Dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, and the dealer has checked for blackjack.
Close calls and clear ones
Most of the chart isn’t close. Standing on 20 against a 6 is worth +0.70 and hitting it is worth −0.85, a gap of more than a whole bet. The interesting cells are the ones where two plays sit within a hundredth of each other. 16 against a 10 is the famous one: hitting is −0.5398 and standing −0.5404, so the difference is 0.06p per £1. Nobody should lose sleep over it. 12 against a 4 is similar, with standing ahead by 0.3p.
Then there are cells where the gap is big and players still get it wrong. Soft 18 against a 9 looks like a stand, but standing loses 18p per £1 and hitting only 10p. Splitting 8s against a 10 feels like throwing good money after bad, yet −0.489 for two hands is better than −0.540 for one bad 16. And 9,9 against a 7 is a stand at +0.400, because a dealer showing 7 so often makes 17 and your 18 beats it.
Why doubling and splitting carry the game
You lose more hands than you win in blackjack. What brings the house edge down to about half a percent is that you put more money out when the maths is on your side: doubles on 9, 10 and 11, splits of aces and 8s, plus the 3 to 2 on naturals. Take double after split away in the calculator and watch several pair cells change.
The figures are exact for an infinite deck, which is how charts are usually built; six and eight-deck games differ by a few thousandths. The plays themselves are on the blackjack strategy chart, the dealer’s side of the maths is on the blackjack probability chart, and the blackjack house edge calculator adds up a whole rule set.
Positive cells are rare and small. Over a session, the house still wins. BeGambleAware.org can help if you’re betting more than you meant to.