- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
A scorecast calculator for the bet on the first goalscorer and the exact score together. Your striker at 7/2 to score first and 2-0 at 8/1. As a double, that’s 4.5 × 9.0 = 40.5, or 79/2. The scorecast price on the coupon is more like 28/1. The CasinoCalcs calculator shows the return on what you’re offered, and how much shorter it is than the double: about 28% here. It’s free, and it handles wincasts too.
How a scorecast works
You pick a player to score the first goal and a correct score. If he does and it ends that way, you’re paid at the scorecast odds. Get either part wrong and the bet loses. Own goals don’t count as the first goal for your player.
A £5 scorecast at 28/1 returns £145. The same £5 as a straight double at 79/2 would return £202.50, if a bookmaker let you do it. They won’t, and the reason is fair enough.
Why the price is cut
The two parts aren’t independent. Say your team’s centre-forward scores first. Now his team is a goal up, and the chance of 2-0 or 2-1 jumps. So the real chance of “he scores first AND it’s 2-0” is bigger than 1/4.5 × 1/9. A fair scorecast price has to be shorter than the double.
The question is how much shorter. If a bookmaker’s scorecast is 40% under the double on a big favourite’s striker, that’s mostly margin. If it’s 15% under, it’s close to the honest correction. You can’t see the exact correlation from the coupon, but comparing the same pick at two places tells you who’s taking the bigger slice.
Wincast
Switch the bet type to wincast and put the match result odds in the second box. Same idea, lower odds, a lot more ways to win: your man first and his team to win by any score. Wincasts are correlated even more strongly, because a team that scores first wins about two thirds of the time.
A rough guide for scorecasts: the most common winning scores are 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. The correct score calculator gives you the chance of each from expected goals. If you’d rather keep the parts separate, settle a double in the bet calculator.
Scorecasts are long shots. Most of them lose. BeGambleAware.org is free and confidential.