Probabilities and fair odds
- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
The 1X2 calculator gives you the three numbers every football bettor starts with: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. Put in each team’s expected goals, 1.6 and 1.1 here, and you get roughly 49% home, 25% draw and 26% away, with fair odds next to each. Add the prices your bookmaker is showing and it works out their margin and tells you if any of the three is value. For the match result market, it’s the football odds calculator to open before anything else.
1X2 calculator, step by step
The 1 is the home side, the X the draw and the 2 the away side, all at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The CasinoCalcs calculator models each team’s goals as a Poisson distribution, builds the full score grid, then adds up every score where the home side is ahead, level or behind. Double chance and draw no bet fall straight out of those three numbers:
- Double chance 1X is the home and draw chances added: 74% here, fair odds about 1.35.
- Draw no bet on the home side ignores draws: 49 ÷ (49 + 26), or 65%, fair odds about 1.53. You get the stake back on a draw.
Spotting the margin
Take a typical set of prices: 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60. One over each and added together that’s 0.476 + 0.294 + 0.278 = 1.048, a 4.8% margin. The calculator strips that out, so you can see the bookmaker rates the home side at about 45%. If your model says 49%, the 2.10 is a small value bet; if it says 43%, leave it. Top-flight 1X2 markets usually run at 3% to 6%; lower leagues and smaller bookmakers often more. The bookmaker margin calculator handles any market, and the no vig calculator gives the fair prices on their own.
Where the draw goes wrong
A plain Poisson model treats both teams’ goals as independent, which slightly underestimates draws, mostly 0-0 and 1-1. In tight, low-scoring games the real draw chance is often a point or two higher than this shows. If a draw price looks like value by a hair, it probably isn’t. For the handicap version of the same match, use the European handicap calculator, and for goal lines, the over under calculator.
A model gives you a number, not a result. BeGambleAware.org has free, confidential support.