Money Back If Second Calculator: Offer Value

The offer

Back stake (£)Usually the most the bookmaker refunds.

Back odds

Exchange lay odds

Exchange commission (%)

Refund paid as

Chance it finishes second (%)A rough start: about the same as its win chance for a mid-priced horse in a normal field.

Lay and value

Lay stake–

Liability–

If it wins–

If it loses–

If it's second (loss + refund value)–

Expected value of the offer–

Second-place chance to break even–

Lay stake = back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission), so the result is about the same whatever happens. The offer's value is the refund times the chance of second.

Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
Tested by Diana Westfield

Updated 10 Nov 2026How we calculate →

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The money back if second calculator sets your lay stake and tells you what the offer is really worth. Take £10 at 5/1 with a refund as a free bet if it’s second. Lay it at 6.4 on an exchange with 2% commission and the lay stake is £9.40. Whatever happens you’re down about 78p, unless it finishes second, when you get a £10 free bet back. That’s worth about £7.50. Free, and it shows the break-even second-place chance too.

The money back if second calculation

Lay stake = back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission)
          = 10 × 6.0 ÷ (6.4 − 0.02) = £9.40

If the horse wins, the bookmaker pays £50 profit and the exchange takes £50.78 of liability. If it loses, the exchange pays £9.40 less 2% and the bookmaker keeps your £10. Either way, −£0.78. That’s the qualifying loss.

Now the refund. Second place triggers a £10 free bet. A stake-not-returned free bet is usually worth 70 to 80% of its face value once you lay it off, so call it £7.50. The question is how often you get it.

How often does a horse finish second?

More often than people think. For a horse in the middle of the market, its chance of second is roughly its chance of winning. A 5/1 shot is about 16% to win, so roughly 15% to be second. Plug in 15% and the offer is worth +£0.34 on average. Above 10.4% it’s profitable, below it isn’t.

Favourites are a bit less likely to be second than to win. Outsiders are a bit more likely. In big handicaps the spread flattens and everything’s lower. If the exchange has a place market, the gap between a horse’s place price and its win price gives you a better feel.

Squeezing a bit more out

Pick horses with a decent chance of second and a tight back/lay spread. A big gap between back and lay odds eats the offer. Some people underlay slightly, so they lose a little if the horse wins and gain a little if it loses, but that only helps if you’re right about where it’ll finish.

The CasinoCalcs matched betting calculator handles the free bet once it lands. To check your lay stakes in general, use the lay calculator, and log the result in the matched betting profit tracker.

Offers are designed to keep you betting. Stop when it isn’t fun or isn’t working. BeGambleAware.org is free and confidential.

Frequently asked questions

How do money back if second offers work?

If your horse finishes second, the bookmaker refunds your stake, usually as a free bet. Win or unplaced, the bet settles as normal.

How much should I lay?

Back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission). £10 at 5/1 laid at 6.4 with 2% commission is £9.40.

What is a £10 refund worth?

As a stake-not-returned free bet, about £7 to £8 once you've matched it. As cash, the full £10.

How do I estimate the chance of second?

For a mid-priced horse in a normal field, its chance of second is roughly the same as its win chance. Favourites slightly less, outsiders slightly more.