- Maths reviewed by Josh Miller
- Tested by Diana Westfield
A horse racing speed figures calculator turns a time into a number you can compare. Two horses who ran a mile in 1m 38.6s on different days at different tracks didn’t run equally well: the ground, the course and the weight on their backs all differ. Put in the race time, the standard time for that course and trip, the going allowance, your horse’s beaten lengths and the weight it carried, and the CasinoCalcs calculator gives one figure on a scale where 100 means standard time at 9st 0lb.
How to calculate horse racing speed figures
Take the defaults as an example. The winner of a mile race clocked 98.60 seconds; our horse was beaten 2½ lengths, and at five lengths a second that’s half a second more, 99.10. The ground was slow by 0.10 seconds a furlong, so over eight furlongs we take 0.80 off: 98.30. Standard time is 97.40, so our horse was 0.90 seconds slow. That’s 4.5 lengths, and at a mile a length is worth about 2 lb, so 9 lb below the 100 mark. It carried 9st 2lb, 2 lb more than the base weight, so add 2 back. The figure is 93.
| Step | Working | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Horse’s time | 98.60 + 2.5 ÷ 5 | 99.10 s |
| Take off the going allowance | 99.10 − 8 × 0.10 | 98.30 s |
| Compare with standard time | 98.30 − 97.40 | 0.90 s slow |
| Seconds to pounds | 0.90 × 5 lengths × 2 lb | 9 lb |
| Weight adjustment | 128 − 126 | +2 lb |
| Speed figure | 100 − 9 + 2 | 93 |
Standard times and the going allowance
Everything rests on two numbers you have to supply. Standard times are the time a decent horse should run over that course and distance on good ground; you can build your own from the best winning times over a few seasons, or use a published set. The going allowance is the day’s correction. Work out how far each winner on the card was from standard, per furlong, and take a typical value, leaving out any race that looks wildly off. A card where every winner is about 0.3 seconds a furlong slow tells you the ground was soft, not that every horse ran badly.
The pounds-per-length curve matters more than people expect. A length is a bigger margin in a five-furlong sprint than in a two-mile staying race, because it’s a bigger share of the whole race. The calculator uses about 3 lb at five furlongs, 2 lb at a mile and 1.4 lb at a mile and a half. If you prefer your own scale, open the extra options and set it.
Using the figures for betting
Speed figures are best at one job: spotting horses whose recent times are better than their form figures suggest, usually because they ran into traffic, raced on the wrong ground or faced a tougher field than the result shows. Compare each runner’s best two or three figures at a similar trip, not just the last one. Then compare your view with the price. A horse you rate clearly top at 6/1 is a value bet if your ratings are any good; the expected value calculator turns that into a number, and the each way calculator prices the place part.
This simple version leaves out weight-for-age, sex allowances, wind and pace, which professional figure makers all build in. Treat the figures as a guide that improves the more races you log in the same way.
Drop your figures into the horse race predictor to turn them into win and place chances for the whole field.
Ratings help you find value; they don’t make a bet safe. Stake only what you’re happy to lose. BeGambleAware.org has free advice.