The early payout calculator works out the lay bet for a “2Up” or “two goals ahead” offer, where the bookmaker pays your bet as a winner as soon as your team goes two goals up. Back £25 at 2.10, lay at 2.16 with 2% commission, and the calculator gives a £24.53 lay stake. Most matches cost you 96p. When the offer pays early and your team then fails to win, you make £51.54. It’s free to use for any match.
How an early payout offer works
You back a team to win. If they go two goals ahead at any point, the bet is settled as a winner straight away, even if the other side comes back to draw or win. Most of the time the early payout changes nothing, because a team that goes 2–0 up usually wins anyway. The value is in the matches where they don’t.
Lay the same team at an exchange and you cover the normal result:
- Team wins: back bet wins, lay loses. Small loss, about −£0.96 here.
- Team draws or loses, no early payout: lay wins, back loses. Same small loss.
- Two goals up, then they draw or lose: the back bet has already been paid, and the lay wins too. +£51.54.
Early payout calculator: is it worth it?
That depends on how often the third case happens. Enter your own guess as a percentage. At 3%, the offer is worth about +£0.62 per match on these numbers. The break-even chance is 1.82%. Below that, the small losses add up faster than the big wins.
Things that help:
- Close back and lay odds. The smaller the gap, the smaller the loss on every match. A 10% gap can wipe out the edge.
- Favourites that concede. A strong attacking side with a shaky defence goes two up often and gives leads away more than you’d think.
- Lots of matches. One trigger in thirty is normal. You need volume for the average to show up.
The same maths works for other early payout offers, such as a horse paid as a winner if it finishes first past the post. Change the chance to suit. For ordinary back and lay bets, use the lay calculator, and for offers in general the matched betting calculator.
Offers change and are subject to the bookmaker’s terms. Check them before you bet. BeGambleAware.org is free and confidential if it stops being fun.